Research

Climate risk and adaptation analysis to national infrastructure systems

National infrastructure systems, such as electricity, water and transport, underpin society. At the same time, they are vulnerable to climate-related extremes, with disruptions causing wider social and economic impacts. We conduct research to better understand where climate risks can impact national infrastructure systems, how those risks may change in the future, and what adaptation strategies could effectively address those risks. We have performed climate risk and adaptation analysis for infrastructure systems in the Netherlands, Jamaica, Bangladesh, India and the Maldives.

Global systemic risks of infrastructure-trade-economic systems

Global networks of trade, supply-chains and transport are increasingly interconnected. Disruptions to key transport nodes or route, firms or entire production chains can cause global ripple effects, resulting in shortages and price spikes. Such systemic risks are, however, not well understood or address within traditional risk management practises. We develop coupled infrastructure-trade-economic models to simulate the systemic impacts of various types of shocks. So far, we have analysed economic losses to of maritime chokepoints and ports disruptions, and the systemic impacts of shocks to the global food system. 

Equity-centric approaches to disaster risk reduction

The impacts of disasters are unequally distributed among affected households, with the poor or otherwise marginalised households often hit disproportionately. Yet, it is less well understood factors amplify these disproportionate impacts; it could be due their disproportionate exposure to hazards, their elevated vulnerability, lack of coping capacity or reprioritisation in recovery efforts. We utilise high-frequency survey data and spatial agent-based models to better understand the impact channels that create unequal impacts to different households. This forms the basis for the development of more equity-centric approaches to disaster risk reduction. 

Climate, human mobility and behavioural adaptation 

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and extreme rainfall, can affect people’s mobility patterns, even if not causing damage to infrastructure. People may stay at home, change the places they visit, or use alternative forms of transport. These adaptive responses may not be the same across urban residents, and are intrinsically linked to wealth, job characteristics, and the place of residence. We explore data-driven approaches, using novel high-frequency datasets,  to better understand the adaptive behaviour of mobility patterns to climate, and how this various across geographies.  

Geospatial modelling for future infrastructure expansion planning

In the Global South context, the need for new infrastructure, such as roads, clean water and electricity, is rapidly growing due to rising populations and a closing of the existing infrastructure access gaps. The planning, prioritisation, and design of new infrastructure require detailed spatial economic, geographic and environmental data, which is not always available. By utilising advanced spatial modelling techniques and innovative spatial data (e.g., satellite, remote sensing), we develop geospatial models that help inform planners in their decision-making, ensuring that resources are allocated efficiently and effectively.